Despite the abundance of information, the massive size of the pot makes it easy to make mistakes on the river, especially when deciding if you should value bet or not. Use the following guidelines to decide if a big river value bet is going to be profitable:
- To make money with a value bet, you want to make it to the showdown with the best hand most of the time. Therefore, you should only bet if you're going to be ahead on average when your opponent calls.
- If your opponent likes to bet a lot as a bluff when checked to on later streets, you should check to him with some of your medium strength holdings that you aren't sure if you should value bet or not. This way you can check and then call to pick off his bluffs.
- If your opponent likes to raise late street bets as a bluff then you have to value bet less often if you plan on folding to his raise.
- When you have an exceptionally strong hand, you should often go ahead and bet instead of trying for a check/raise if you think your opponent will call a bet with more hands than he will bet when checked to.